Why is Tim Melia so good at saving penalties?

Intro

Tim Melia has had an interesting career. From USL to MLS pool goalkeeper, Tim bounced around a variety of teams since graduating from D2 (Sunshine State Conference) Lynn University in 2007. He started with the Rochester Rhinos in 2008 and got his first taste of MLS action in 2010 when he signed with Real Salt Lake. After a couple of loan spells, he signed with Chivas USA in 2012 but was not able to establish himself at either club. 

After just over 2 seasons and just 6 league appearances with The Goats, he became an MLS pool goalkeeper in 2014. This is where he finally caught a break and after impressing Sporting KC during his time as a pool goalkeeper, they signed him permanently in 2015.It was an inspired move and after initially starting as the backup, by May Melia made the number one jersey his own which culminated in him winning the 2015 MLS Comeback Player of the year.

Despite impressing SKC for nearly 10 seasons now, Melia was never called up to the USMNT. There were certainly calls for him to receive a call up at times, particularly in the 2019 season but it never happened. Since then he has also proven himself as a penalty saving specialist, which is what I will dive into now.

Stats

So, two major pieces of information confirm Melia’s excellence when defending spot kicks. The first is that in the 34 penalties he has faced in MLS play, Melia has saved a staggering 13 (I’ve seen some MLS sources state 14 but I can’t find the 14th. They may be counting an MLS Reserve League save that I haven’t). That’s a 38% chance of the penalty being saved. Various stats I’ve seen show the average penalty save rates as being between 11% and 18% for various leagues and time periods. Either way Melia’s penalty save rate in the MLS is at least double the average.

Tim Melia Penalties Faced (MLS Only)

The next is that in the 7 penalty shoot outs that Melia has been involved in, he has won all 7 of them. That’s right, a 100% winning record in penalty shootouts.

 Tim Melia Penalty Shootout Record

Analysis

Through the stats we have shown Tim Melia is clearly a significantly better penalty saver than the average goalkeeper at this level and the sample size is large enough to show this isn’t some kind of fluke. So, the question is – why is this? He must be doing something differently, or have some special skill other goalkeepers don’t have.

So, what is it? At 6ft1 he’s a good size for a goalkeeper but certainly nothing out of the ordinary that would give him such a large advantage over the general population of MLS goalkeepers.

Here’s what Melia himself has to say about it;  "You're trying to pick up little queues, you're trying to see what directions people are looking, tendencies of the shooter, their run-up, their approach. I kind of put everything together all at once and hopefully pick the right side. Tonight I thought the guys taking the shots on our team, they were really good penalties. As a goalkeeper you're just trying to tell yourself to just try to save one and the guys are going to put all theirs in and tonight we were lucky to get out of there in four rounds.

"I think it's just another piece [of my game]. You try to be the most complete goalkeeper you are and you try to work on all different facets of your game. In all the penalty shootouts I've been in, the shooters, especially on [our] team have done so well and most of them have scored and I've had to make a save or two, so a lot of that comes down to the team.”

I watched as many of Melia’s penalty saves as I could find and here’s my take on it and the four key factors he’s nailed to give him such an advantage.

I’m sure there’s other factors which may never be known, but from an interested spectator on the outside looking in, this is what I saw.

-   Research 

Melia knows where he’s going to before the kick is taken. As every top-level goalkeeper does nowadays, Melia and his coaches would’ve done his homework on all the possible penalty takers, watched as many of their penalties as possible and deduced where they’re most likely to shoot. As soon as anyone steps up to take a spot kick he knows where he’s going to dive and locks in on his decision.

-   Confidence

Looking at Melia’s body language, he believes he’s going to make the save. If you could look into his brain at that moment, he’s probably visualizing him making the save, and exactly how he’s going to do it. That he might not save the penalty isn’t a possibility that even factors into consideration.

Add in his supreme record when saving penalties and you’d have to believe that it would be easy for doubt to creep into the takers mind as to how they’re going to take the kick which cant be helpful in such as highly pressured situation.

-   Early Movement

Linked to the first point, Melia dives as early as possible without tipping off the penalty taker.

However, Ex Aberdeen Goalkeeper David Preece in an interview with The Sunday Post suggests that the early movement may be detrimental and waiting may be the better strategy.

“As a goalkeeper, if you make an early movement, either to one side or forwards, they are going to pick you off.

So if you’re coming off your line, it’s a negative.

We’re talking fractions of a second here, but goalkeepers have to be more patient.

If it’s a good penalty, it will be scored anyway. But waiting, in today’s game, is a tool that goalkeepers should be using.”

Whilst there certainly an element of some penalty takers waiting to make the first move, for a lot of his saves Melia dives before the penalty is struck. However, he dives late enough (if he dives; several of his saves were straight down the middle and didn’t require a dive to save) that the taker is already in the motion of striking the ball and it would be very difficult for them to alter their motion.

So certainly, the correct timing of the dive is important; too early and the taker is going to be able to user that to their information, too late and he risks not getting the maximal possible extension to have the highest probability of reaching the ball in time.

-   Courage

As I mentioned in the last point, for several of Melia’s penalty saves he doesn’t dive at all. It takes bravery to be facing up to a penalty kick and just stand there without making a move but he’s able to do it. Knowing that doing nothing but standing there gives you the highest percentage of saving the penalty and actually being able to do that are two different things. Melia’s ability to break through this is a key aspect of his skill in the penalty saving department.